Across the U.S. and around the world, many were shocked as former president Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris, winning his second term and becoming President-elect.
Dr. Andy Taylor and Dr. Steven Greene, professors of political science in NC State’s School of Public and International Affairs gave an analysis on the outcome of the election and what caused it.
Dr. Taylor stated what both Gallup and Pew Research Center had found prior to election day: the economy was the main issue of this election.
However, Dr. Taylor pointed to the exit polling, where 68% of people polled said the condition of the U.S. economy was either not so good, or poor, yet to the question of where their family’s financial situation was compared to four years prior, 54% said it was about the same or better today.
Dr. Taylor said this disconnect was one of the problems for Democrats.
While both professors say that Harris’ campaign made some mistakes, they say, in their opinions, these mistakes were no greater than the ones every other candidate makes.
Dr. Taylor explained the loss of the, essentially incumbent, candidate by saying, “I think people are just ornery.”
He pointed to how the U.S. has now had two back-to-back elections where the presidents, at the time, served just one term and said, “It’s the nature of the electorate at the moment…it seems to me that the country is just in a foul mood.”
He said that while he does not think that Harris ran a particularly bad campaign, he also did not think it was a particularly good one.
“In an absolute sense her campaign was a B, graded on a curve it was an A,” said Dr. Greene.
One mistake of Harris’, Dr. Greene said, is that “She could’ve definitely done more to distance herself from Joe Biden.”
Neither professor was surprised she lost, as the polls had shown it was a close race, however, Dr. Taylor says “I think the country is actually becoming more culturally liberal,” implying that the problem was not necessarily rooted in policy, but, perhaps, more rooted in messaging.
Dr. Greene expanded on this saying, “I think, on some level, the democratic brand is culturally toxic to a lot of Americans in rural areas, and even in some non-rural areas and I don’t know how far they want to go in fixing that,” but he added, “I do think that is the fundamental problem right now for Democrats.”
He continued by talking about how the average democratic party donor is no longer in touch with the average American. “The socioeconomic shifts in the parties coalitions explains a lot more of the story than we often get to read about,” added Dr. Taylor.
He said the current shift is actually not necessarily due to populism, as many have said it is, but more so a backlash to globalization. Explaining that it is not surprising immigration and trade have been two main issues in recent elections as they are close proxies to this process.
While Dr. Taylor had initially thought that there was a Trump fatigue, his thought was disproven saying, he“won Florida by 14 percentage points, it’s just gone crazy.”
Additionally,“In places like New Jersey and New York, Trump did really well compared to what he did in 2020.”
This lead Taylor to say, “Maybe the Democrats need a Trump, stylistically.” He said that while Trump has gambled on a type of voter that is not as reliable, this type being the non-college educated, this gamble has obviously been successful for him.
While both professors think that the 2026 primaries will bode well for Democrats, with Dr. Taylor adding that the end to Trump’s second term may fizzle out if so, both also believe that in order for the Democratic party to find success nationally they need to reach out more to low-income, rural and middle America voters and demonstrate how their policies will help them.
Looking forward to the 2028 election, they said it will be a free-for-all and expect it to be a very interesting battle in both parties over who will secure the party nomination.