In recent years, Ecuador experienced a dramatic surge in violence and organized crime. This crisis reached a critical point in January, when President Daniel Noboa declared the country was in an “internal armed conflict” against 22 criminal groups.
Three groups led the attention-grabbing incidents that led Noboa to recognize the existence of threats posed by these criminal groups labeled as “terrorists.”
On Jan. 7, unrest erupted in six national prisons after one of the country’s
most-wanted criminals, Adolfo Macias, also known as “Fito,” escaped from a detention center in Guayaquil. In response to his escape, Noboa declared a nationwide 60-day state of emergency, which including the mobilization of military forces and curfews.
Less than 24 hours after this announcement, a group of masked, armed men took control of “TC Televisión,” an Ecuadorian TV station, during a live broadcast — revealing the country’s escalating violence to the world.
While January’s events threw Ecuador into a downward spiral, crime and insecurity have long been an issue for the country.
Noboa’s authorization of military forces to move against criminal groups under the United Nations International Humanitarian Law quickly gathered attention from international organizations such as the Human Rights Watch (HRW). Concerns about the accuracy of classifying the situation an “internal armed conflict” were raised.
The criteria outlined by the HRW defines an internal armed conflict as “protracted armed violence between governmental authorities and organized armed groups or between such groups,” requiring two elements: a certain level of organization among the armed groups and a significant intensity of hostilities.
Under the framework of International Humanitarian Law, declaring an internal armed conflict triggers heightened domestic security measures. The declaration permits governments to deploy special emergency powers to restore peace and order — including the armed forces and national police. This may raise concerns over human rights protections.
Michael Struett, a political science professor at NC State, said the label “internal armed conflict” does carry specific legal connotations under the international law.
“It’s an international law concept,” Struett said. “Throughout the 20th century, civil wars became much more of an issue. …there was a bit of a diplomatic push to fix the international law and make it clear that even if you’re in a civil war, fighting people entirely within your borders, you’re still not supposed to shoot and kill people…and so the term ‘internal armed conflict’ was born and it has a legal threshold requirement to sort of distinguish it from criminal violence.”
According to the HRW, the Ecuadorian government’s resolution appears to lack legal basis and could open the door to human rights violations. In a letter to Noboa, the organization said that “the existence of an armed conflict—international or non-international—does not depend on the declaration or determination made by a government or its president, but on an objective analysis of the facts on the basis of criteria established under international law.”
After analyzing the decree and police reports, the HRW said the Ecuadorian government failed to provide adequate evidence to classify the violence involving the 22 criminal groups as an internal armed conflict.
Regardless of international criteria for classifying the situation as an internal armed conflict, it is clear Ecuador continues to experience a significant rise in crime and violence.
By the numbers
According to the Global Organized Crime Index, Ecuador had a significant increase in criminal market scores in 2023, rising 0.8 percent since 2021. Now, the country is positioned among the top 10 most organized-crime-ridden countries worldwide.
Homicide rates have also risen to historic levels. According to the HRW’s “World Report 2024,” Ecuador’s homicide rate went from 13.7 per 100,000 people in 2021 to about 45 per 100,000 people in 2023, positioning the country among the top three most violent countries in Latin America, alongside Venezuela and Honduras.
Understanding the root causes through firsthand experience
The Nubian Message talked with Nabih Dahik, a program coordinator from the Global Training Initiative at NC State and a native of Quito, Ecuador, about the root causes leading to the increase in violence and crime in the country.
One of the root causes being the expansion of the global cocaine trade market in Ecuador. According to Dahik, the country’s geostrategic location, combined with weak counternarcotics and security capabilities in port cities, has transformed Ecuador into a key drug trafficking route, further influencing the criminal environment.
“We are kind of just the middleman in the process,” Dahik said about Ecuador’s position in the traffiking of drugs coming from neighboring countries, Colombia and Peru.
Colombia and Peru are the world’s top producers of cocaine, with Colombia being responsible for almost two thirds of the total coca cultivation area in 2022, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). Given its borders with both countries, it was only a matter of time before Ecuador became an important hub in the global cocaine trade.
When asked about a specific events weakening the security in port cities and increased drug trafficking, Dahik attributed it to the closure of the U.S. Air Force base in Manta in 2009, a decision made by then-President Rafael Correa, who sought to remove foreign military presence from the country.
“For me, one of the main [root causes] was the [removal of] the Manta base, when we just looked to the other side and said we don’t want the American army here,” Dahik said. “That put the country in a weak position because our military didn’t have the training to control [the ports] of Ecuador.”
Ecuador also has a history of political and judicial corruption, contributing to the rise of organized crime and complicates efforts to address the current security crisis.
“Corruption has been a problem in Ecuador forever,” Dahik said. “The problem is the justice system. Police do kind of their work, they put [criminals] in jail, but after a week the criminals will go out.”
By allowing years of growing impunity to gangs, previous administrators and state actors have facilitated the current stage of organized crime in Ecuador.
Security measures taken by the government, political landscape ahead
Since January, Noboa issued several states of emergency amid his anti-crime efforts, allowing soldiers to patrol the streets and prisons.
In April, he also gained voter support for a series of security measures in a referendum that approved of a constitutional amendment. It allowed the extradition of Ecuadorians accused of crimes and permitted Armed Forces to carry out operations alongside the police without a state of emergency.
Noboa’s actions signaled his militarized approach to tackle crime and violence. According to Mónica Palencia, Minister of the Interior, violent deaths fell 19 percent through July, compared to the same period in 2023.
Ecuador is facing an upcoming election this February that can ultimately determine the country’s direction. This week, Noboa confirmed his candidacy for reelection next year.
“There’s going to be an upcoming election in February 2025, so that will give us a little bit of the landscape for what Ecuador is going to be in the future,” Dahik said.
